Sports Stats & Betting Glossary

Win probability

An estimate of how likely a team is to win a given game, shown as a percentage. On MatchupLens it's derived from the betting market when available, otherwise from team records plus home advantage.

Moneyline

A bet (or price) on which team wins outright, with no point spread. Negative numbers (e.g. −150) mark the favorite and show how much you'd stake to win $100; positive numbers (e.g. +130) mark the underdog and show the profit on a $100 stake.

Implied probability

The win chance baked into a betting price. A −150 moneyline implies roughly a 60% chance; +130 implies about 43%. We convert moneylines to implied probability to build our estimate.

Point spread

A margin set by sportsbooks to level a matchup. A team listed at −6.5 must win by 7+ to 'cover'; a team at +6.5 covers by losing by 6 or fewer, or winning outright.

Over/Under (total)

The combined number of points/goals/runs both teams are projected to score. You can bet whether the actual total finishes over or under that line.

Vig (juice)

The built-in margin a sportsbook charges, which makes the two sides of a market add up to more than 100%. We remove the vig when converting a line into a clean win-probability estimate.

ATS (against the spread)

How a team performs relative to the point spread rather than just win-loss. A heavy favorite can win the game but still fail to cover ATS.

Push

A tie against the betting line — for example, a team favored by exactly 6 that wins by exactly 6. Pushed bets are typically refunded.

Favorite / Underdog

The favorite is the team more likely to win (shorter odds); the underdog is the less likely side (longer odds, bigger potential payout).

Head-to-head (H2H)

The history of past meetings between two teams. Recent H2H results can hint at stylistic matchups, though they don't guarantee future outcomes.

Home advantage

The measurable edge teams tend to have at home, from crowd support to travel and familiarity. Its size varies by sport and isn't applied at neutral-site games or individual combat sports.

Neutral site

A venue that isn't the home ground of either team — common in tournaments like the World Cup or championship games. Home advantage doesn't apply.

Confidence level

MatchupLens labels each pick High, Medium, or Low based on how far the favorite's win probability sits from 50/50. It reflects model certainty, not a promise of accuracy.

Group stage

The opening round-robin phase of a tournament (e.g. the World Cup), where teams in a group each play one another and the top finishers advance to the knockout rounds.

Knockout round

A single-elimination stage where the loser is out. In soccer, tied knockout matches go to extra time and, if needed, a penalty shootout.

Parlay

A single bet that combines multiple selections; every leg must win for the parlay to pay. Higher potential payout, much lower probability — the risk compounds with each leg.

Live (in-play)

A game currently in progress. Scores and, on some markets, odds update in real time while play is ongoing.

Definitions are educational. Nothing here is betting advice. If you choose to wager, do so responsibly and only where legal. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. How our model works →