Cardinals at Cubs — MLB, 4:05 PM ET on MLB.TV. Our model makes Cubs the favorite at 56.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.
Last updated Jul 1, 7:19 AM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.
St. Louis Cardinals (44-38) travel to face Chicago Cubs (48-38) in a MLB game at Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois. CHC first pitch is at 4:05 PM ET on MLB.TV. Our model gives CHC a 56.0% chance to win and STL a 44.0% chance. This is a toss-up — neither side holds a meaningful edge.
Why Chicago Cubs can win: Cubs bring a respectable 48-38 record into this game. CHC 48-38 vs STL 44-38, giving them a statistical edge. Home teams win roughly 54% of MLB games.
Why St. Louis Cardinals can win: Cardinals are a .500-or-better team at 44-38 and capable of winning on the road. Cardinals hold a 3–0 head-to-head advantage in recent matchups.
Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Chicago Cubs the slim favorite with a 56.0% win probability. Cardinals are given a 44.0% chance to pull the upset. Low confidence — this projects close and either team could win. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.
