WNBA
Start
7:00 PM ET
Jul 5, 2026
Venue
T-Mobile Arena
Las Vegas, NV
Broadcast
ESPN / Disney+
Win probability
LV 61.0%
IND 39.0%
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Fever at Aces WNBA, 7:00 PM ET on ESPN / Disney+. Our model makes Aces the favorite at 61.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Last updated Jul 1, 7:20 AM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.

Matchup snapshot
LVIND
670REB651
436AST402
1300FGA1300
Key storylines
Betting line: LV -5.5 · O/U 183.5
Matchup analysis

Indiana Fever (11-8) travel to face Las Vegas Aces (14-5) in a WNBA game at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV. LV starts at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN / Disney+. Our model gives LV a 61.0% chance to win and IND a 39.0% chance. The edge is real but slim; an upset is well within range.

Why Las Vegas Aces can win: Aces enter with one of the better records in their division at 14-5. LV 14-5 vs IND 11-8, giving them a statistical edge. Home teams win roughly 58% of games in basketball.

Why Indiana Fever can win: Fever are a .500-or-better team at 11-8 and capable of winning on the road.

Betting context: The current point spread is LV -5.5. Betting market information is provided for context only — this is not betting advice. Always wager responsibly and only where legal..

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Las Vegas Aces the moderate favorite with a 61.0% win probability. Fever are given a 39.0% chance to pull the upset. The model has medium confidence — treat this as a lean, not a certainty. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.