Liberty at Mercury — WNBA, 3:00 PM ET on ABC. Our model makes Liberty the favorite at 53.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.
Last updated Jul 28, 1:12 AM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.
New York Liberty (15-12) travel to face Phoenix Mercury (10-18) in a WNBA game at Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ. PHX starts at 3:00 PM ET on ABC. Our model gives PHX a 47.0% chance to win and NY a 53.0% chance. This is a toss-up — neither side holds a meaningful edge.
Why Phoenix Mercury can win: Despite a 10-18 record, Mercury retain the home-court edge. Home teams win roughly 58% of games in basketball.
Why New York Liberty can win: Liberty are a .500-or-better team at 15-12 and capable of winning on the road. The model notes: phx 10-18 vs ny 15-12. Liberty hold a 2–0 head-to-head advantage in recent matchups.
Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes New York Liberty the slim favorite with a 53.0% win probability. Mercury are given a 47.0% chance to pull the upset. Low confidence — this projects close and either team could win. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.
