Sky at Mercury — WNBA, 10:00 PM ET on WNBA League Pass / CW26. Our model makes Mercury the favorite at 56.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.
Last updated Jul 1, 7:12 AM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.
Chicago Sky (6-13) travel to face Phoenix Mercury (7-13) in a WNBA game at Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ. PHX starts at 10:00 PM ET on WNBA League Pass / CW26. Our model gives PHX a 56.0% chance to win and CHI a 44.0% chance. This is a toss-up — neither side holds a meaningful edge.
Why Phoenix Mercury can win: Despite a 7-13 record, Mercury retain the home-court edge. PHX 7-13 vs CHI 6-13, giving them a statistical edge. Home teams win roughly 58% of games in basketball.
Why Chicago Sky can win: Sky are 6-13 this season but road games can serve as equalizers. Sky hold a 2–0 head-to-head advantage in recent matchups.
Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Phoenix Mercury the slim favorite with a 56.0% win probability. Sky are given a 44.0% chance to pull the upset. Low confidence — this projects close and either team could win. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.