UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Flyweight
C.
Charles Johnson
19-8-0
VS
A.
Asu Almabayev
23-3-0
Start
9:00 AM ET
Jun 27, 2026
Venue
National Gymnastics Arena
Baku
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
A. 57.0%
C. 43.0%
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C. Johnson vs A. Almabayev UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Flyweight, 9:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes A. Almabayev the favorite at 57.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Charles Johnson meets Asu Almabayev in a UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Flyweight bout at National Gymnastics Arena, Baku. The contest gets underway at 9:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives A. a 57.0% win probability and C. a 43.0% chance. The model sees a slight edge, but MMA is volatile and upsets are frequent.

Why Asu Almabayev can win: A. Almabayev carries a 23-3-0 record into this fight. A. 23-3-0 vs C. 19-8-0 gives them a statistical lean.

Why Charles Johnson can win: C. Johnson enters at 19-8-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Asu Almabayev the moderate model favorite at 57.0% win probability. C. Johnson are given a 43.0% chance. Medium confidence — treat this as a lean, not a certainty. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

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