UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Lightweight
M.
Manuel Torres
17-3-0
VS
R.
Rafael Fiziev
13-5-0
Start
9:00 AM ET
Jun 27, 2026
Venue
National Gymnastics Arena
Baku
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
R. 45.0%
M. 55.0%
SHARE

M. Torres vs R. Fiziev UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Lightweight, 9:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes M. Torres the favorite at 55.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Manuel Torres meets Rafael Fiziev in a UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Lightweight bout at National Gymnastics Arena, Baku. The contest gets underway at 9:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives R. a 45.0% win probability and M. a 55.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.

Why Rafael Fiziev can win: R. Fiziev carries a 13-5-0 record into this fight.

Why Manuel Torres can win: M. Torres enters at 17-3-0. The model notes: r. 13-5-0 vs m. 17-3-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Manuel Torres the slim model favorite at 55.0% win probability. R. Fiziev are given a 45.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

More matchups today
UFCUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · WelterweightJun 27, 2026 · 9:00 AM ET
J.
J. Nascimento
vs
T. Abdullayev
T.
National Gymnastics ArenaParamount+J. 55%
UFCUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · BantamweightJun 27, 2026 · 9:00 AM ET
B.
B. Almakhan
vs
J. Matsumoto
J.
National Gymnastics ArenaParamount+J. 54%
UFCUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · WelterweightJun 27, 2026 · 9:00 AM ET
D.
D. Donchenko
vs
T. Berggren
T.
National Gymnastics ArenaParamount+D. 56%
UFCUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · FeatherweightJun 27, 2026 · 9:00 AM ET
K.
K. Ofli
vs
J. Reyes
J.
National Gymnastics ArenaParamount+J. 52%
See all games →