Tsarukyan vs Makhachev — UFC 322 · Lightweight Title · Main Event, 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+ PPV. Our model makes Makhachev the favorite at 64.0%, leaning on grappling edge. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.
Last updated Aug 12, 7:32 PM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.
Arman Tsarukyan meets Islam Makhachev in a UFC 322 · Lightweight Title · Main Event bout at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV. The contest gets underway at 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+ PPV. Our model currently gives IM a 64.0% win probability and AT a 36.0% chance. The model sees a slight edge, but MMA is volatile and upsets are frequent.
Why Islam Makhachev can win: Makhachev carries a 27-1-0 record into this fight. 65% takedown accuracy and 91% defense — Makhachev dictates where the fight happens gives them a statistical lean. Makhachev also leads the head-to-head series 1–0.
Why Arman Tsarukyan can win: Tsarukyan enters at 22-3-0. The model notes: 10-1 since 2019 with three top-5 wins; the gap has narrowed every year. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.
Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Islam Makhachev the moderate model favorite at 64.0% win probability. Tsarukyan are given a 36.0% chance. Medium confidence — treat this as a lean, not a certainty. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.