USA vs Türkiye — FIFA World Cup 2026, 10:00 PM ET on FOX / Tele / FOX One. Our model makes USA the favorite at 65.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.
United States (2-0-0) faces Türkiye (0-0-2) in a FIFA World Cup 2026 match at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California. Kickoff starts at 10:00 PM ET on FOX / Tele / FOX One. Our model gives TUR a 35.0% win probability and USA a 65.0% chance. Note: this model estimates win/loss probability only — draw probability in soccer is not separately modeled. Real-world draw odds from sportsbooks will differ. The model favors one side clearly, though any match can finish level.
Why Türkiye can win: Türkiye have home-match advantage and the support of their crowd.
Why United States can win (or draw): USA come in as one of the stronger sides at 2-0-0. the model notes: tur 0-0-2 vs usa 2-0-0. a draw is always possible in football and would deny both sides a win.
Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes United States the clear favorite at 65.0% win probability (draw not modeled). Türkiye are given a 35.0% chance. The model has high confidence in this call. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.
