UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Lightweight
D.
Damian Rzepecki
10-0-0
VS
M.
Magomed Zaynukov
8-0-0
Start
9:00 AM ET
Jul 25, 2026
Venue
Etihad Arena
Abu Dhabi
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
M. 50.0%
D. 50.0%
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D. Rzepecki vs M. Zaynukov UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Lightweight, 9:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes M. Zaynukov the favorite at 50.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Last updated Jul 22, 3:10 AM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Damian Rzepecki meets Magomed Zaynukov in a UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Lightweight bout at Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. The contest gets underway at 9:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives M. a 50.0% win probability and D. a 50.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.

Why Magomed Zaynukov can win: M. Zaynukov carries a 8-0-0 record into this fight.

Why Damian Rzepecki can win: D. Rzepecki enters at 10-0-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Magomed Zaynukov the slim model favorite at 50.0% win probability. D. Rzepecki are given a 50.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

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