UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Light Heavyweight
M.
Magomed Tuchalov
6-0-0
VS
B.
Brendson Ribeiro
17-10-0
Start
9:00 AM ET
Jul 25, 2026
Venue
Etihad Arena
Abu Dhabi
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
B. 35.0%
M. 65.0%
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M. Tuchalov vs B. Ribeiro UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Light Heavyweight, 9:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes M. Tuchalov the favorite at 65.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Last updated Jul 22, 2:45 PM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Magomed Tuchalov meets Brendson Ribeiro in a UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Light Heavyweight bout at Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. The contest gets underway at 9:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives B. a 35.0% win probability and M. a 65.0% chance. The model sees a clear edge here, though any single punch can change an MMA fight.

Why Brendson Ribeiro can win: B. Ribeiro carries a 17-10-0 record into this fight.

Why Magomed Tuchalov can win: M. Tuchalov enters at 6-0-0. The model notes: b. 17-10-0 vs m. 6-0-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Magomed Tuchalov the clear model favorite at 65.0% win probability. B. Ribeiro are given a 35.0% chance. High model confidence. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

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