UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Bantamweight
M.
Mark Vologdin
12-4-2
VS
J.
Josias Musasa
8-2-0
Start
10:00 AM ET
Aug 1, 2026
Venue
Belgrade Arena
Belgrade
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
J. 53.0%
M. 47.0%
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M. Vologdin vs J. Musasa UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Bantamweight, 10:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes J. Musasa the favorite at 53.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Last updated Jul 28, 1:13 AM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Mark Vologdin meets Josias Musasa in a UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Bantamweight bout at Belgrade Arena, Belgrade. The contest gets underway at 10:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives J. a 53.0% win probability and M. a 47.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.

Why Josias Musasa can win: J. Musasa carries a 8-2-0 record into this fight. J. 8-2-0 vs M. 12-4-2 gives them a statistical lean.

Why Mark Vologdin can win: M. Vologdin enters at 12-4-2. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Josias Musasa the slim model favorite at 53.0% win probability. M. Vologdin are given a 47.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

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