UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · W Strawweight
M.
Marina Spasić
7-1-0
VS
S.
Stephanie Luciano
7-2-1
Start
10:00 AM ET
Aug 1, 2026
Venue
Belgrade Arena
Belgrade
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
S. 45.0%
M. 55.0%
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M. Spasić vs S. Luciano UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · W Strawweight, 10:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes M. Spasić the favorite at 55.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Last updated Jul 29, 6:51 PM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Marina Spasić meets Stephanie Luciano in a UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · W Strawweight bout at Belgrade Arena, Belgrade. The contest gets underway at 10:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives S. a 45.0% win probability and M. a 55.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.

Why Stephanie Luciano can win: S. Luciano carries a 7-2-1 record into this fight.

Why Marina Spasić can win: M. Spasić enters at 7-1-0. The model notes: s. 7-2-1 vs m. 7-1-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Marina Spasić the slim model favorite at 55.0% win probability. S. Luciano are given a 45.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

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