UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Lightweight
N.
Noah Gugnon
9-2-0
VS
M.
Milos Janicic
19-3-0
Start
10:00 AM ET
Aug 1, 2026
Venue
Belgrade Arena
Belgrade
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
M. 52.0%
N. 48.0%
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N. Gugnon vs M. Janicic UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Lightweight, 10:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes M. Janicic the favorite at 52.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Last updated Jul 29, 6:51 PM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Noah Gugnon meets Milos Janicic in a UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Lightweight bout at Belgrade Arena, Belgrade. The contest gets underway at 10:00 AM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives M. a 52.0% win probability and N. a 48.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.

Why Milos Janicic can win: M. Janicic carries a 19-3-0 record into this fight. M. 19-3-0 vs N. 9-2-0 gives them a statistical lean.

Why Noah Gugnon can win: N. Gugnon enters at 9-2-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Milos Janicic the slim model favorite at 52.0% win probability. N. Gugnon are given a 48.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

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