UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Middleweight
D.
Dricus Du Plessis
23-3-0
VS
K.
Kamaru Usman
21-4-0
Start
5:00 PM ET
Jul 18, 2026
Venue
Paycom Center
Oklahoma City, OK
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
K. 48.0%
D. 52.0%
SHARE

D. Du Plessis vs K. Usman UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Middleweight, 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes D. Du Plessis the favorite at 52.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Last updated Jul 14, 11:09 PM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Dricus Du Plessis meets Kamaru Usman in a UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Middleweight bout at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK. The contest gets underway at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives K. a 48.0% win probability and D. a 52.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.

Why Kamaru Usman can win: K. Usman carries a 21-4-0 record into this fight.

Why Dricus Du Plessis can win: D. Du Plessis enters at 23-3-0. The model notes: k. 21-4-0 vs d. 23-3-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Dricus Du Plessis the slim model favorite at 52.0% win probability. K. Usman are given a 48.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

More matchups today
UFCUFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · W FlyweightJul 18, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
A.
A. Melisano
vs
D. Barbosa
D.
Paycom CenterParamount+A. 57%
UFCUFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · HeavyweightJul 18, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
R.
R. Harris
vs
A. Hines
A.
Paycom CenterParamount+R. 55%
UFCUFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · FlyweightJul 18, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
S.
S. Nicoll
vs
A. Coria
A.
Paycom CenterParamount+A. 53%
UFCUFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Light HeavyweightJul 18, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
L.
L. Rodrigues Jr.
vs
F. Franco
F.
Paycom CenterParamount+L. 57%
All UFC games →