UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Welterweight
S.
Seokhyeon Ko
13-2-0
VS
J.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
10-2-0
Start
5:00 PM ET
Jul 18, 2026
Venue
Paycom Center
Oklahoma City, OK
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
J. 49.0%
S. 51.0%
SHARE

S. Ko vs J. Lebosnoyani UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Welterweight, 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes S. Ko the favorite at 51.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Last updated Jul 14, 11:09 PM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Seokhyeon Ko meets Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani in a UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Welterweight bout at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK. The contest gets underway at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives J. a 49.0% win probability and S. a 51.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.

Why Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani can win: J. Lebosnoyani carries a 10-2-0 record into this fight.

Why Seokhyeon Ko can win: S. Ko enters at 13-2-0. The model notes: j. 10-2-0 vs s. 13-2-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Seokhyeon Ko the slim model favorite at 51.0% win probability. J. Lebosnoyani are given a 49.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

More matchups today
UFCUFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · W FlyweightJul 18, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
A.
A. Melisano
vs
D. Barbosa
D.
Paycom CenterParamount+A. 57%
UFCUFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · HeavyweightJul 18, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
R.
R. Harris
vs
A. Hines
A.
Paycom CenterParamount+R. 55%
UFCUFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · FlyweightJul 18, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
S.
S. Nicoll
vs
A. Coria
A.
Paycom CenterParamount+A. 53%
UFCUFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Light HeavyweightJul 18, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
L.
L. Rodrigues Jr.
vs
F. Franco
F.
Paycom CenterParamount+L. 57%
All UFC games →