UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Lightweight
M.
Mitch Ramirez
8-3-0
VS
C.
Chase Hooper
16-5-1
Start
5:00 PM ET
Jul 18, 2026
Venue
Paycom Center
Oklahoma City, OK
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
C. 51.0%
M. 49.0%
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M. Ramirez vs C. Hooper UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Lightweight, 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes C. Hooper the favorite at 51.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Last updated Jul 14, 11:09 PM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Mitch Ramirez meets Chase Hooper in a UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Lightweight bout at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK. The contest gets underway at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives C. a 51.0% win probability and M. a 49.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.

Why Chase Hooper can win: C. Hooper carries a 16-5-1 record into this fight. C. 16-5-1 vs M. 8-3-0 gives them a statistical lean.

Why Mitch Ramirez can win: M. Ramirez enters at 8-3-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Chase Hooper the slim model favorite at 51.0% win probability. M. Ramirez are given a 49.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

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