S. Nicoll vs A. Coria — UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Flyweight, 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes A. Coria the favorite at 53.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.
Last updated Jul 14, 11:09 PM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.
Stewart Nicoll meets Alden Coria in a UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Flyweight bout at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK. The contest gets underway at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives A. a 53.0% win probability and S. a 47.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.
Why Alden Coria can win: A. Coria carries a 12-3-0 record into this fight. A. 12-3-0 vs S. 8-3-0 gives them a statistical lean.
Why Stewart Nicoll can win: S. Nicoll enters at 8-3-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.
Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Alden Coria the slim model favorite at 53.0% win probability. S. Nicoll are given a 47.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.