UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Lightweight
B.
Benoît Saint Denis
17-3-0
VS
P.
Paddy Pimblett
23-4-0
Start
5:00 PM ET
Jul 11, 2026
Venue
T-Mobile Arena
Las Vegas, NV
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
P. 50.0%
B. 50.0%
SHARE

B. Saint Denis vs P. Pimblett UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Lightweight, 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes P. Pimblett the favorite at 50.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Benoît Saint Denis meets Paddy Pimblett in a UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Lightweight bout at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV. The contest gets underway at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives P. a 50.0% win probability and B. a 50.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.

Why Paddy Pimblett can win: P. Pimblett carries a 23-4-0 record into this fight.

Why Benoît Saint Denis can win: B. Saint Denis enters at 17-3-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Paddy Pimblett the slim model favorite at 50.0% win probability. B. Saint Denis are given a 50.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

More matchups today
UFCUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · FlyweightJul 11, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
C.
C. Durden
vs
O. Osbourne
O.
T-Mobile ArenaParamount+C. 53%
UFCUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · MiddleweightJul 11, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
R.
R. Gandra
vs
Z. Reese
Z.
T-Mobile ArenaParamount+R. 55%
UFCUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · BantamweightJul 11, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
F.
F. Basharat
vs
E. Ewing
E.
T-Mobile ArenaParamount+F. 57%
UFCUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · MiddleweightJul 11, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
D.
D. Pinas
vs
C. Almeida
C.
T-Mobile ArenaParamount+D. 55%
All UFC games →