UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Welterweight
C.
Conor McGregor
22-6-0
VS
M.
Max Holloway
27-9-0
Start
5:00 PM ET
Jul 11, 2026
Venue
T-Mobile Arena
Las Vegas, NV
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
M. 49.0%
C. 51.0%
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C. McGregor vs M. Holloway UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Welterweight, 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes C. McGregor the favorite at 51.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Conor McGregor meets Max Holloway in a UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Welterweight bout at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV. The contest gets underway at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives M. a 49.0% win probability and C. a 51.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.

Why Max Holloway can win: M. Holloway carries a 27-9-0 record into this fight.

Why Conor McGregor can win: C. McGregor enters at 22-6-0. The model notes: m. 27-9-0 vs c. 22-6-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Conor McGregor the slim model favorite at 51.0% win probability. M. Holloway are given a 49.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

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