UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Bantamweight
M.
Mario Bautista
17-3-0
VS
C.
Cory Sandhagen
18-6-0
Start
5:00 PM ET
Jul 11, 2026
Venue
T-Mobile Arena
Las Vegas, NV
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
C. 46.0%
M. 54.0%
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M. Bautista vs C. Sandhagen UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Bantamweight, 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes M. Bautista the favorite at 54.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Mario Bautista meets Cory Sandhagen in a UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Bantamweight bout at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV. The contest gets underway at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives C. a 46.0% win probability and M. a 54.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.

Why Cory Sandhagen can win: C. Sandhagen carries a 18-6-0 record into this fight.

Why Mario Bautista can win: M. Bautista enters at 17-3-0. The model notes: c. 18-6-0 vs m. 17-3-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Mario Bautista the slim model favorite at 54.0% win probability. C. Sandhagen are given a 46.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

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