UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Middleweight
D.
Damian Pinas
9-1-0
VS
C.
Cesar Almeida
7-2-0
Start
5:00 PM ET
Jul 11, 2026
Venue
T-Mobile Arena
Las Vegas, NV
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
C. 45.0%
D. 55.0%
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D. Pinas vs C. Almeida UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Middleweight, 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes D. Pinas the favorite at 55.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Damian Pinas meets Cesar Almeida in a UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Middleweight bout at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV. The contest gets underway at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives C. a 45.0% win probability and D. a 55.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.

Why Cesar Almeida can win: C. Almeida carries a 7-2-0 record into this fight.

Why Damian Pinas can win: D. Pinas enters at 9-1-0. The model notes: c. 7-2-0 vs d. 9-1-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Damian Pinas the slim model favorite at 55.0% win probability. C. Almeida are given a 45.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

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