UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Heavyweight
E.
Elisha Ellison
5-2-0
VS
G.
Gable Steveson
3-0-0
Start
5:00 PM ET
Jul 11, 2026
Venue
T-Mobile Arena
Las Vegas, NV
Broadcast
Paramount+
Win probability
G. 61.0%
E. 39.0%
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E. Ellison vs G. Steveson UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Heavyweight, 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes G. Steveson the favorite at 61.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.

Matchup snapshot
Key storylines
Matchup analysis

Elisha Ellison meets Gable Steveson in a UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Heavyweight bout at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV. The contest gets underway at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives G. a 61.0% win probability and E. a 39.0% chance. The model sees a slight edge, but MMA is volatile and upsets are frequent.

Why Gable Steveson can win: G. Steveson carries a 3-0-0 record into this fight. G. 3-0-0 vs E. 5-2-0 gives them a statistical lean.

Why Elisha Ellison can win: E. Ellison enters at 5-2-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.

Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Gable Steveson the moderate model favorite at 61.0% win probability. E. Ellison are given a 39.0% chance. Medium confidence — treat this as a lean, not a certainty. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.

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