L. Riley vs K. Kamaka III — UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Featherweight, 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes L. Riley the favorite at 62.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.
Luke Riley meets Kai Kamaka III in a UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Featherweight bout at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV. The contest gets underway at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives K. a 38.0% win probability and L. a 62.0% chance. The model sees a slight edge, but MMA is volatile and upsets are frequent.
Why Kai Kamaka III can win: K. Kamaka III carries a 18-7-1 record into this fight.
Why Luke Riley can win: L. Riley enters at 13-0-0. The model notes: k. 18-7-1 vs l. 13-0-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.
Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Luke Riley the moderate model favorite at 62.0% win probability. K. Kamaka III are given a 38.0% chance. Medium confidence — treat this as a lean, not a certainty. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.