A. Costa vs C. Durden — UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Flyweight, 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model makes A. Costa the favorite at 55.0%, leaning on season records. Full reasoning in the Prediction tab.
Last updated Jul 1, 6:19 AM ET · Estimated win probability based on available data, which may be delayed. Informational only — not betting advice.
Alessandro Costa meets Cody Durden in a UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Flyweight bout at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV. The contest gets underway at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Our model currently gives C. a 45.0% win probability and A. a 55.0% chance. This is a razor-thin matchup — model confidence is low and either fighter can win.
Why Cody Durden can win: C. Durden carries a 18-10-1 record into this fight.
Why Alessandro Costa can win: A. Costa enters at 16-5-0. The model notes: c. 18-10-1 vs a. 16-5-0. MMA finishes can come from anywhere — style mismatches often override record-based models.
Prediction summary: MatchupLens makes Alessandro Costa the slim model favorite at 55.0% win probability. C. Durden are given a 45.0% chance. Low confidence — this is a close fight by the model's inputs. Predictions are editorial analysis for entertainment only — not betting advice.